Venezuelan opposition declares end to boycott, agrees to participate in local and state elections
The opposition, whose candidates in past elections have been harassed and banned by Maduro’s government, has boycotted all votes since 2018. On Tuesday, its leaders acknowledged the likelihood that the local and regional elections in November would again be rigged against them. But they portrayed the decision to field candidates as a last-ditch effort to reignite their base and restore democracy to this beleaguered South American nation.
Others, however, saw the move as simply a nod to the new reality in Venezuela, where Maduro has significantly strengthened his grip on power.
Maduro’s government has sought for months to cajole opposition candidates to run, seeing their participation as key to rebuilding international legitimacy. Opposition officials now say joining the elections could be “useful” for them, too — laying the groundwork for future presidential and legislative elections, as well as to seeking relief for the dual crises of hunger and health care that have gripped the nation for years.
Maduro’s government and the opposition have restarted a new round of talks, this time in Mexico City, aimed at breaking the nation’s long political impasse.
“Participating in the elections does not mean legitimizing them. It means that there is a de facto regime and we are demanding our rights,” Henry Ramos Allup, leader of one of the four main opposition parties, said Tuesday. “We are exhausting all resources to continue to carry out this fight.”
Notably, Guaidó was absent when other opposition leaders announced the decision at a Caracas news conference.
“I think the opposition is up against the wall,” said Russ Dallen, managing partner of Caracas Capital, a Florida-based consulting firm that follows Venezuela. “It’s not like Trump is going to send in troops anymore, or Biden, after what’s happening in Afghanistan.
“It’s not so much capitulation, but a lack of options. They know they don’t have any choice — that they are negotiating from a position of weakness.”
Maduro has played a layered, patient game, dismantling the last democratically elected institution in the country, the opposition-controlled National Assembly, and reconstituting it with allies and more friendly opponents. The leader, once isolated, has won new allies as the left wing has taken power in nearby countries such as Peru, European resolve against him has diminished, and the Biden administration has been distracted by the coronavirus pandemic and Afghanistan.
Before the main opposition parties announced their decision Tuesday, other political actors who also oppose Maduro had launched their own campaigns for 335 mayor’s offices and 23 governorships.
“This is not a sign of surrender, but a return to sanity,” said Antonio Ecarri, an opposition politician not aligned with the major parties who is running for mayor of Caracas. “This is the only way to articulate a majority that is not happy with the regime.”
But critics, including hard-line opposition figure María Corina Machado, have called the decision to end the boycott “oxygen” for Maduro in exchange for the potential “crumbs” of winning a few local elections.
“Those who fell into the trap of November are not truly in opposition to the regime,” she said during a public event this month.
Questions remain about the extent to which any election in Venezuela could be free and fair. In 2017, the company that sold Venezuela its voting system warned that an election for the country’s new Constituent Assembly had been manipulated by at least 1 million votes. More broadly, Maduro’s government has harassed, detained and sharply limited media access to opposition candidates.
The Venezuelan government has invited representatives of the United Nations, the European Union and the U.S.-based Carter Center to observe the November elections, but the extent and mandate of any foreign observer mission remain unclear.
Elliott Abrams, President Donald Trump’s former special representative to Venezuela, said the decision to field candidates amounted to a “realistic” approach for the opposition. The widespread sense in 2019 that Maduro would soon fall, he told The Washington Post, has now dissipated — partly, he said, because of continued support for Maduro by foreign powers including Russia, China and Iran.
Given that reality, Abrams said, “the opposition is looking at the 2024 presidential election as the moment of potential change. So in that context, it makes sense to get back involved with electoral politics and start rebuilding the parties.”
Nevertheless, the move marks a sharp departure from the opposition’s previous position that running in any Venezuelan elections would only legitimize Maduro’s government, and that it would be better to play a zero-sum game to force his ouster.
Among some opposition operatives, there was a sense of despair. They blamed some within their own ranks desperate to jump-start their own political careers. One operative, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter, compared the opposition to Nicole Kidman’s character in The Others.
“We’re dead, politically,” the operative said. “We’re just the only ones who don’t know it.”