Mercados emergentes

La croissance s’améliore pour certains pays comme l’Argentine, le Brésil, l’Iran ou la Turquie.

Negotiations to restructure Argentina’s debts will determine its external financing needs over the coming years. But with no access to international capital markets, Argentina needs to “sit down with the IMF to obtain some short-term financing as soon as possible”, according to economists at UBS.

La profesora de la universidad de Cornell (EE UU) llama al regreso de los bancos de desarrollo: "Hace falta algo más que solo mercado y la región no puede ir en dirección contraria"

They are less at risk of a surfeit of sellers over buyers

Emerging markets are heading into the fourth quarter in the shadow of one of the most perilous phases in the U.S.-China trade dispute.

Emerging markets are still growing around twice as fast as advanced economies. Yet the expected gap with advanced economies in gross domestic product growth is now almost a full percentage point lower than a year ago, with GDP growth in EMs projected to be the lowest for a decade this year.

Apart from China and India, there is little sign that developing economies are converging with the developed world

For the past three decades, many emerging economies have relied on their role in global trade and supply chains to drive growth — but disruption is biting them as the trade war between the US and China intensifies.

According to Evghenia Sleptsova and her team at Oxford Economics, Argentina's peso and the Turkish lira are the two currencies most vulnerable to yet another sell-off. Sleptsova calculates a 70 per cent chance of a currency crisis in the next three years in Turkey, and about the same for Argentina over the same period.