Mercados emergentes

Emerging markets are heading into the fourth quarter in the shadow of one of the most perilous phases in the U.S.-China trade dispute.

Emerging markets are still growing around twice as fast as advanced economies. Yet the expected gap with advanced economies in gross domestic product growth is now almost a full percentage point lower than a year ago, with GDP growth in EMs projected to be the lowest for a decade this year.

Apart from China and India, there is little sign that developing economies are converging with the developed world

For the past three decades, many emerging economies have relied on their role in global trade and supply chains to drive growth — but disruption is biting them as the trade war between the US and China intensifies.

According to Evghenia Sleptsova and her team at Oxford Economics, Argentina's peso and the Turkish lira are the two currencies most vulnerable to yet another sell-off. Sleptsova calculates a 70 per cent chance of a currency crisis in the next three years in Turkey, and about the same for Argentina over the same period.

Argentina cada vez padece más un ciclo de interrupciones financieras, contracción económica, inflación debilitante y calificación crediticia en decadencia.

Veteran investor Mark Mobius made a name for himself by making big bets on unloved emerging economies around the world. He went bargain hunting across Asia as the financial crisis rippled through the region in the late 1990s. He also snapped up Russian stocks around the same time, despite the country defaulting on its debts in 1998. And before most investors even considered investing in Africa, Mobius already had.

Latin America saw significant political upheaval in 2018 - and this year has more in store. M&G's bond fund manager Claudia Calich is keeping an eye on Argentina

Stock and currency indexes for developing countries have rallied, with investors drawn by cheap valuations in the wake of last year’s selloff Oil platforms operated by Lukoil are seen in the Caspian Sea. Surging oil prices have been a boon for Russia and other oil exporters.